I went to get some of my crazed summer-frizzed hair chopped the other day, so got to talk to my hairdresser, my infallible guide to the mood of the city. He has a lot of west-side clients, so he gets a sense of things percolating before I do. He told me when the tide was turning against Sam Sullivan, how much people liked Gregor Robertson at first, and then how fed up they’ve been with him lately.
This time, he said that everyone (of his clients, a select group, as I said) is looking for a hopeful saviour. And they’re interested in Kirk LaPointe, the NPA’s newbie political candidate. They just don’t know a thing about him, even in this small town where everyone knows everyone. (This fact is always brought home to me forcefully when I get calls from people wanting to know what I really think of this or that job candidate — when I haven’t been listed as a reference. People in this tiny city trade information constantly about who’s who.)
LaPointe was not the kind of editor like my old Kamloops Daily News boss, Mel Rothenburger, who followed council closely and was forever opining aboutcivic stuff. When people voted for Mel as mayor back in 1999 and in 2002 in Kamloops, they had a pretty good idea who he was and what he would do. In contrast, LaPointe was not quoted often during his 2003-2010 at the Vancouver Sun on any topic, where he was the second in command. And he wasn’t that interested in civic politics at the time.
I did a story on the latest Justason poll in today’s Globe, linked to here, that showed that, although 59 per cent of decided voters are still committed to Vision’s Gregor Robertson, a surprising ly strong 41 per cent said they would vote for Kirk LaPointe as mayor — even though he had declared his candidacy only the week before and hardly anyone knows anything about him. (I should mention that 45 per cent of people in the poll were undecided.)
So LaPointe is starting with an advantage and the few people who did know something about him liked the fact that he sounded smart and honest. (See more on what people thought of the two mayoral candidates here.)
But he and his team have to know that that’s not enough. The political elders I talk to all the time like to say, “People vote governments out, they don’t vote them in.” That’s been the conventional wisdom for a while and I’m sure that will be true for some voters.
But, as we saw in B.C. and Ontario provincial elections recently, it doesn’t seem like it’s enough just to say, “I’m not the other guy.” A party that doesn’t present a credible enough alternative will drivers voters back into the arms of even those governments with a messy track record.
The NPA and LaPointe will get the standard NPA base. Suzanne Anton got 58,000 votes last time to Gregor Robertson’s 77,000. So they can count on that. LaPointe may also be successful in pulling out a few more NPA-inclined voters who stayed home last time.
They can also likely count on some votes that went to Robertson in 2011 peeling away to COPE, in spite of the uncharted waters COPE appears to be sailing in these days. Justason’s poll had COPE getting support from 10 per cent of those surveyed. So perhaps Robertson will lose as many as 10,000 votes from committed lefties who either don’t vote for a mayoral candidate at all or vote for whomever COPE runs — Tim Louis, perhaps.
Some former Vision voters may just stay home. But, really, to win the election, LaPointe will need to try to persuade about 10,000-15,000 moderate voters, people who voted for Vision last time, that he’s worth a try.
LaPointe comes across as much more moderate than the party’s traditional image, so far, though mostly because of his direct, articulate presentation as opposed to any new policy. But the swing group is not going to be persuaded by someone who is speaking standard NPA lines, just with more verve, wit, and a bigger vocabulary. They’ll want to know what LaPointe, who says he is now the leader of the NPA (as opposed to Peter Armstrong), is going to do differently.
The party hasn’t wanted to spell out policy yet and I don’t blame them — it’s a hot summer, no one is paying attention, and why should they. (Plus, they’re probably still figuring it out.) But after Labour Day, people will expect more thoughtful ideas and solutions.
Some questions he and the party likely need to answer for those people who will want to be reassured there’s a possibility of real change:
1. What is the plan for affordable housing for not-rich, not abjectly-poor, but regular people in the city. That showed up as a top issue in the Justason poll of what people are concerned about. (And it can’t just be the “I feel your pain. I can’t even afford to live in the city myself” that LaPointe referenced in his first news conference. LaPointe and his wife own, according to the records, a property assessed at $1.266 million on UBC land, double what it was when purchased 10 years ago, and appear to have a household income that puts them in the top 10 per cent.)
In the past, the NPA’s position has been that if the city just makes it easier for developers to build, the supply of new houses and condos will solve all problems. But there’s been a lot of doubt about that lately among people unhappy with the city’s development policies. Even Vision councillors, as pro-development as people believe them to be, will say they’ve learned that supply alone is enough. It has to be supply but supply with some kind of city policy attached that produces something besides than tiny one-bedrooms on the east side selling for $300,000 a pop.
2. What is the plan for creating more public trust in the campaign-finance system. The poll said that 68 per cent of people think developers have too much control at city hall.
LaPointe has now said a couple of times, “I’m beholden to no one.” That’s true today. But, after five months of campaigning with a team that will likely pull in at least $2 million from donors, he will appear to many to be beholden to quite a few people. Does the NPA have a real plan to put limits on donations or provide information on donors in advance of the election or anything that will give people more confidence? Something beyond a promise to lobby the provincial government for changes.
3. What is the plan for dealing with homelessness? Previous governments, mostly NPA but even COPE in 2002-2005, took the position that it was all very sad about people sleeping on the street, but it was the province’s responsibility to provide more shelter not the city’s. So those people continued sleeping on the street, more of them every year. The NPA did press hard to have the province create more social housing and were successful in getting started on what became a massive provincial plan to build 14 social-housing sites. Those are almost done. But that’s not going to get everyone off the street, sorry to say. And I don’t think most people are willing to go back to shrugging off people sleeping in the alleys and in doorways as “not our problem.”
4. How will the NPA manage the difficult task of listening to communities, while not putting a moratorium on development in the whole city. Vision’s weakest point is the perception that the party just doesn’t listen. (The poll showed 62 per cent of people surveyed thought that was true.) Public hearings are legally mandated to be the awful circuses they are. So what is a new way to try to approach public conversation. (And don’t say “online” or I might gag. That’s a technology, not an attitude or a change in the dynamic.)
5. Finally, on the divisive issue of bike lanes, what is the plan? LaPointe has said there are “lots” of solutions that don’t create so much tension between drivers and cyclists. I’d like to hear about them. I’m a pretty dedicated motor-vehicle addict myself, but I do admire people who get out there and ride around town. I think they should be supported and not just told to stick to the streets where they won’t bother cars.
A lot of people are looking forward to hearing about some new choices on these issues. They are genuinely hoping to hear more than rhetoric.
40 responses so far ↓
1 Donna Dobo // Jul 31, 2014 at 11:52 am
Thanks for this report Frances. I too have been waiting for Mr. La Pointe to say something. I would especially like to hear him say that the ‘fiscally responsible’ conservative party at City Hall gets it. Spending $5 billion for 3 km of sky train extension for the Millenium Line is fiscally irresponsible, when light rail moves more people to more destinations just as fast for a tenth of the price tag. That’s what I want to hear him say. He would have my vote.
2 Frances Bula // Jul 31, 2014 at 12:04 pm
@Donna. As far as I can tell from the statements so far, he is pro the Broadway subway. He mentioned something in his first coffee klatch with us about how Calgary light rail is the biggest light-rail line in Canada, but it doesn’t have anywhere near the numbers that would be travelling the Broadway line. (Sorry, too busy today to go transcribe the quote exactly.)
His main criticism of the mayor so far is that he is falsely promising the Broadway line when he has no power to get anything done and he’s talked about how no one in Victoria or Ottawa “wants to dance” with Robertson. So I wouldn’t be holding my breath for that Broadway light rail under an NPA government.
3 Donna Dobo // Jul 31, 2014 at 12:12 pm
I remain ever hopeful that someone in government will see the light (rail). thanks for updating me Frances.
4 Michael Geller // Jul 31, 2014 at 12:13 pm
Frances, a very thoughtful and potentially helpful piece! I won’t be surprised if you start to hear answers to your questions in the fall, as part of the NPA policies.
I note that you do not specifically mention the Green Party. While the Justason poll reveals its support is declining, I would think it might turn out to be the place where some disenchanted Vision, COPE and possibly NPA voters park their votes. We’ll know on November 15.
5 Richard Wittstock // Jul 31, 2014 at 12:14 pm
I like what Lapointe has to say about a lot of issues, and I am a traditional NPA supporter, but I have two big concerns:
(1) As an avid cyclist both for commuting and recreational purposes, I am very supportive of the network of bike infrastructure that has been expanded by Vision. The NPA’s last articulated position that I am aware of is that they would reverse the beautiful work that has been done to improve Point Grey Road. That comment, from Clr. Affleck, is about as moronic as they come. So that’s a deal-breaker for me. If the NPA thinks it can get elected by continuing to use bike lanes as a wedge issue between it and Vision, it is misreading the electorate and will suffer as a result.
Many people in my neighbourhood who were skeptical of or vehemently against the bike lane on PGR have now changed their tune now that they have seen how it has enhanced safety, beautified the street, enhanced parks, increased bike usage and not appreciably increased auto congestion.
(2) We have to remember that the Mayor is really not that important. He’s just the figurehead, the best-paid Councillor. But when it comes time to vote he is just one of 11. Even if Lapointe is able to unseat Robertson, I still see Clrs. Jang, Meggs, Reimer, Deal, Louie and Stephenson as being pretty unassailable. So even if Robertson were to lose, I don’t see any significant change coming to City Hall. Other than Melissa De Genova and possibly the two incumbents, who else is the NPA going to elect? And I don’t believe the COPE lunatic fringe or the other NIMBY parties are going to see any traction at all.
6 Frances Bula // Jul 31, 2014 at 12:28 pm
@Michael. For sure, the Green Party is important. I expect they are going to gain votes and possibly elect two councillors. That’s what other party polls are showing. But this post was specifically addressed to the most recent candidate and one who is looking to lead a new council.
7 Michael Geller // Jul 31, 2014 at 12:42 pm
Thanks Frances. Fair comment.
On a related point, if I was writing your headline I might have added 45% undecided, since I think this is also significant. These are the people NPA and other parties will need to attract.
8 Peg Fong // Jul 31, 2014 at 1:01 pm
Is that Hal?
9 IanS // Jul 31, 2014 at 1:11 pm
For my part, I would like to hear Mr. Lapointe’s position on Vision’s plans to destroy the viaducts.
10 tedeastside // Jul 31, 2014 at 1:36 pm
the NPA 100% supports removing the viaducts,
but whenever you ask an NPA supporter about that they squirm and deflect , its pretty funny
11 spartikus // Jul 31, 2014 at 1:37 pm
Looking at those static numbers I really think COPE needs to address their often confrontational social media messengers, who will take a flame-thrower to anyone – friend or foe – who question some of their statements.
Other than Peter Fry, the Green Party seems non-existent. They need to step up.
12 Lee // Jul 31, 2014 at 3:09 pm
Like many people I am listening carefully to Mr LaPointe, but there is one significant factor that does not depend directly on him. I think it would be difficult to overestimate the level of disenchantment the public feel towards Vision Vancouver. Many citizens are itching to throw these bums out, that is the sentiment of every person I have spoken to who has an opinion on civic politics. I also would hope that the NPA would present a slate of Council candidates that at least some of whom would be able to ride in on this wave and at least take away Vision’s majority. The fact that Mr LaPointe appears to be a legitimate mayoral candidate gives me great hope for change at City Hall.
13 David // Jul 31, 2014 at 3:18 pm
I wouldn’t completely ignore the so-called NIMBY parties. The Vision approach – come to the public having already made the decision showing two of the rejected ideas as if they’re really still options – has really annoyed a significant number of people in this city. Meanwhile COPE has proven themselves incapable of handling any difference of opinion within the party and therefore can be counted upon to ignore the public with a vigour that even Vision would find objectionable.
Most of the electorate believes that city hall has been run by developers for pretty much all of recorded history. That makes neither Vision nor the NPA palatable.
I personally see Cedar as a threat to take votes from the NPA and NSV as a threat to Vision. I want to like TEAM (I took an urban studies course from the late Walter Hardwick), but I’m not seeing much substance from them and their website might be the worst one I’ve seen since the 1990s.
14 Richard // Jul 31, 2014 at 3:30 pm
@Donna Dobo
The extension of the Millenium Line all the way to UBC is $2.8 billion. No idea where you get the $5 billion from. To Arbutus, it is $1.9 billion I believe.
As well, due to transit being underground and many more people using transit, space on Broadway can be reallocated for wider sidewalks, patios and separated bike lanes while still allowing for on street parking. The street would be totally transformed. Much better for business and the community.
10km of the new $5.3 billion Eglington LRT in Toronto is underground. They are using the opportunity to transform the street improving the walking environment and adding separated bike lanes. We can do the same here.
15 F.H.Leghorn // Jul 31, 2014 at 4:12 pm
Looks like Richard has been hanging around with politicians for way too long. The cavalier reference to a mere “2.8 Billion”, the cement-head assumption that 20,000 people a day will always want to go out to the Point Grey campus.
I also have big plans for everyone else’s money, but the only voting bloc I represent is campaign donors. How much did HUB raise for Vision in the last 4 years?
16 boohoo // Jul 31, 2014 at 5:36 pm
I don’t know how you could have an opinion on this guy yet…he’s said nothing but “gregor bad”. Let’s hear some actual policy opinion anything…
17 Paul Tolnai // Jul 31, 2014 at 5:40 pm
On the 10% support of COPE translating into 10,000 votes… Something tells me that’s a very low ball number.
If 10% of eligible voters support them, that’s 40,000 – 50,000 votes…
Even using last election’s voter turnout of 35% that’s more like 15,000 votes..
However, anyone saying right now they’d vote COPE is probably extremely likely to go vote. So I’d say they’re likely going to pull 20,000 to 25,000 votes easily… Probably more.
For instance – In the last election, the lowest vote getter for COPE was RJ Aquino with 39,000 votes.
The discontent with Gregor and Vision is very strong in the COPE ranks, that number could possibly grow larger as we near November.
That spells trouble for the ruling party.
18 spartikus // Jul 31, 2014 at 6:24 pm
The discontent with Gregor and Vision is very strong in the COPE ranks
The discontent in the COPE ranks is strong, period, only 1 of their Councillor candidates still being with the party.
The confrontational tactics of the protest don’t translate well to electioneering.
Kiss a baby once in awhile, Tristan Markle.
But I will grant you this, of all the opposition parties, they’ve been offering the most substantive [if combative] responses and most detailed [if not always viable] platform. The back and forth b/w them and VV spokespeople on Twitter has been the most worthwhile to watch, even if it descends into silliness quite often.
19 spartikus // Jul 31, 2014 at 6:26 pm
don’t translate
That would be “doesn’t translate”.
Sigh
20 F.H.Leghorn // Jul 31, 2014 at 7:54 pm
” it descends into silliness quite often”. Thank goodness that never happens here.
I think “tactics… don’t” is the correct formulation.
21 teririch // Aug 1, 2014 at 12:24 pm
And the fun and games begin:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUCFFLDtiTY&feature=youtu.be
22 teririch // Aug 1, 2014 at 12:31 pm
@Richard #14:
Are you basing that $2.8 B on today’s numbers?
If that is the case, if and when that line is constructed, that number will jump exponentially.
23 spartikus // Aug 1, 2014 at 12:45 pm
So the video above was created 2 years ago for the last election by “Take Back Vancouver,” which billed itself as “The NPA’s forum to discuss Vision Vancouver’s record from the past 3 years.”
Given Kirk LaPointe’s no personal attack pledge, I wonder where terms like “Mayor Moonbeam” fit in and if there is a statute of limitations?
And given the triumphant success of the NPA’s last campaign strategy why you would want to forward the old schtick now.
24 Chris Keam // Aug 1, 2014 at 12:50 pm
It would be nice if commenters didn’t post campaign materials to the thread. And learned the definition of exponential.
25 Donna Dobo // Aug 1, 2014 at 12:55 pm
The estimate for the millenium extension doesn’t account for much higher operating costs for ALRT vs light rail, and ignores the requirement for a redundant bus line for shorter trips. A tunnel doesn’t benefit the communities it passes under. Stations 1 km apart (min) take you from where you are not, to where you are not going. People drive to stations and leave their cars on residential streets, as seen on Cambie. And independent businesses more than 3 blocks from a station will be starved for foot traffic, also as seen on Cambie. Gregor has made the commitment to building the greenest city, and clean, quiet, convenient light rail is the answer for this goal. He has sold out to developers who will build density at station nodes.
26 boohoo // Aug 1, 2014 at 1:03 pm
Yes this whole ‘higher ground’ pledge lasted all of never.
It’s all the same…why we expect different is beyond me.
27 Richard // Aug 1, 2014 at 1:38 pm
@Donna Dobo
Your information is not that accurate. Please read the studies. http://www.translink.ca/~/media/Documents/plans_and_projects/rapid_transit_projects/UBC/alternatives_evaluation/UBC_Line_Rapid_Transit_Study_Phase_2_Alternatives_Evaluation.ashx
The operation cost is not much higher for SkyTrain, $12.9 million, than LRT, $11.9 million, and SkyTrain cost estimate is for greater capacity and ridership. The operating cost for LRT to carry the same number of passengers would be higher.
The LRT would pretty much have the same stop spacing as SkyTrain. There is one more planned between MacDonard and Alma.
There would be no point in having an LRT with many more stops. It would take longer than the current B-Line. Plus more stops increases operating costs and more trains and space to store them. All this costs more money.
With either LRT or SkyTrain, the trolley buses with the local stops will still be needed.
For businesses,SkyTraint will be the same as the Bline today. It certainly would not be worse. And with the opportunity to widen sidewalks, add patios and add separated bike lanes while retaining parking, SkyTrain should be better than LRT and the Bline today.
Environmently, SkyTrain is better as it will get many more cars off the road.
28 teririch // Aug 1, 2014 at 1:49 pm
Sorry Spartikus, it wasn’t then NPA that reposted the vid.
29 chow // Aug 1, 2014 at 2:14 pm
No, teririchardson, it was you.
So, Ms. Bula, we have an election coming on. Is everyone free to post campaign ads on your blog or just Ms. Richardson. After all, tyou are the referee. Just want the rules to be clear.
30 Richard // Aug 1, 2014 at 2:56 pm
@teri
The Take Back Vancouver [to 1950] nonesence failed last time, not sure why you are bring it back. It is really inaccurate regarding the bike lanes. They are safer. Some initial issues were fixed years age. They are not causing really any congestion, especially compared to the maasive amounts of congested caused by too many cars on the road and crashes caused by drivers.
31 F.H.Leghorn // Aug 1, 2014 at 3:38 pm
@chow#29: clearly chomping at the bit (straining at the leash?). So go ahead, tell us how wonderful Gregor is and how many impressive achievements this council has on its record.
Rules, Schmules. Am I right? It’s a horse-race, I mean, an election (Beauty contest?). All’s fair in etc.
Maybe some readers will fall for it.
32 skippy // Aug 1, 2014 at 8:41 pm
Enjoy how the painfully straight mayoralty candidates pander for the gay vote on Pride weekend.
33 teririch // Aug 2, 2014 at 9:29 am
@Chow #29
Eeeh, wrong again.
34 spartikus // Aug 2, 2014 at 9:38 am
Apparently someone else posted the video as teririch.
Although the cost is likely minimal, someone is paying the bills to keep that site up. It’s content and LaPointe’s pledge seem incompatible.
Given that it’s an NPA site, they should probably take it down.
35 Bill // Aug 2, 2014 at 11:20 am
I thought LaPointe presented very well the other night commenting on the latest poor judgement from the Vancouver Parks Board this time dealing with the Vancouver Aquarium.
36 gman // Aug 2, 2014 at 11:46 am
There are no personal attacks in the video,it simply points out what the mayors record is in a very humorous way. And it rings as true today as it did when it was made.
Calling people f…ing hacks or angry old white guys would be a personal attack.Nice fake outrage though guys,try again.
37 Lee // Aug 2, 2014 at 1:38 pm
I am not so naive to think that the NPA will suddenly become a paragon of consultation, or that they will entirely abandon Vision’s lust for hi-rise development. I do expect they will be more realistic about using taxpayers money to solve social problems. Above all though, I just need this mayor and council gone, I have had this bad taste in my mouth long enough.
38 teririch // Aug 3, 2014 at 11:02 am
Funny enough spartikus #34…
That video holds the same voice over as the Hadden Park Defence video – you know, the one that outlined where the bike path would be placed.
No poli party put it up, it was a private citizen…. with some talents.
39 Dr. Frankentower // Aug 3, 2014 at 10:39 pm
“Environmently, SkyTrain is better as it will get many more cars off the road.”
NONESCENCE, Richard.
How has the Canada Line performed regarding taking cars off the road?
+50,000 condo units added to the CL corridor in the next 10 years?
The friends of some shmuck rendered useless by appointment in London are cashing in big time and now you trumpet a billions dollar bore?
Nonsense!
40 Jenables // Aug 7, 2014 at 6:59 pm
If 45% are undecided, the balance would be 55%, of which 59% favoured Robertson wouldn’t that be 32%,with lapoint at 22%
So…
Undecided 45%
Robertson 32%
Lapointe 22%
Which adds up to 100% (99 actually)
Am I understanding this wrong?